Wall street records gains of more than 0.5% and sets new historical highs after the S&P 500 has accumulated an annual profit of 28.8%, its most bullish year since 2013, when a 29.6%. The fact that a date has been set –January 15– for the signing of the 'phase one' agreement between China and the US It has been well received by investors. The Dow jones, meanwhile, advanced by 22.3% in 2019, while the Nasdaq it shot 35%.
Despite optimism, experts warn that everything can be distorted in the negotiation of the 'phase two' of the trade agreement planned for this year 2020. In any case, In the short term the prospects are good and the bags are discounting it.
"The indexes start well 2020, taking advantage of last year's momentum," says Gregory Faranello, chief analyst at AmeriVet Securities. Like many others, to Faranello it is hard for him to think that this year will be as good as the past. "It's hard to imagine that 2020 offers the same performance as 2019," he says.
MORE VOLATILITY AND CORRECTION OF 10%
A increased volatility from very low levels and a higher probability of registering a 10% correction. They are the main forecasts of Joseph Davis, strategy director of Vanguard Group, one of the largest investment funds worldwide, with an asset portfolio valued at 5.6 trillion dollars.
This expert believes that, after the impressive bullish rally of recent months, US equity faces a higher than normal risk of suffering a sharp fall at some point in 2020. If under normal conditions, the historical probability of a 10% drop for Wall Street is 30%Davis currently considers that probability has risen to fifty%, as commented.
The last major correction that Wall Street registered occurred precisely a year ago, when New York's indexes they collapsed 20% from its historical highs until the day of the Christmas Eve 2019, which became the most bearish in history for US equities.
ECONOMY, COMPANIES AND OTHER MARKETS
It also helps improve a good investor sentiment PMI manufactures in China, which continues in expansive terrain in December, as well as the measures taken by the People's Bank of China to support the economy, which they assume inject 800,000 million in liquidity into the system.
Europe has risen strongly this Thursday also to the sound of good business prospects. Donald Trump said Tuesday that he will sign the first phase of the trade agreement with China in the White House in the middle of the month and announced that he will travel to Beijing to begin negotiating the 'phase two'.
As for macro data in the US, the initial unemployment requests They have fallen to 222,000 from 224,000, compared to 225,000 in advance. In addition, the December manufacturing PMI has stood at 52.4, almost in line with the expected 52.5. In the Euro Zone, This reference has been below expected.
In the business scene, Disney advances 2% and leads the advances in Dow Jones for the positive forecasts of analysts for its online content platform, Disney +.
In addition, the chip maker AMD rebounds by 6% in the S&P 500 after Nomura Instinet experts have raised the valuation of their shares to $ 58 per share.
In other markets, the barrel of West Texas oil increases 0.2%, to 61.20 dollars, after closing the year with 35% gains, its biggest annual increase since 2016. In addition euro it depreciates 0.22% and changes to $ 1,1185, highs of the last four months. Finally, the profitability of US 10-year bond it falls to 1.89%, while the two-year bond falls to 1.56% and the three-month bond rises to 1.55%.