Wall street It does not find a defined trend and has closed as it has dawned with timid rises, with the exception of the Dow Jones. The market is aware of three factors: the recent rise in bond yields, he announcement of more stimuli by the future president, Joe biden, scheduled for this Thursday; and the political chaos in Washington, with the impeachment of Donald Trump for encouraging the assault on the Capitol.
"In the US, by not invoking the 25th Amendment by Vice President Pence, today the impeachment could be voted, just 8 days after Biden's inauguration, "they point out from Renta 4. The goal is for Trump not to be able to run for president in 2024.
An 'impeachment' that does not seem to take place before January 20. The republican McConnell is unwilling to convene the emergency Senate reason why the impeachment will take place after the inauguration of Joe Biden.
These experts also highlight "the FBI warning of plans for armed protests in all 50 states at least until the new president takes office on January 20. "For now, the political chaos and the assault on the Capitol have not affected the stock markets, but they are undoubtedly offering an embarrassing image for the country.
On the stimuli that Biden will announce, analysts do not believe that they are finally "billions of dollars", but yes at least between 600,000 and 900,000 million, which will undoubtedly boost growth in 2021 to contain the negative effects of the pandemic, which remains uncontrolled in the US. During the last day, they have been detected almost 250,000 cases and more than 3,300 deaths.
At an economic level, the December CPI in the US, a key data for the behavior of bonds and for the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed), has risen by 0.4%, to close the year at 1.4%. The Underlying inflation, which excludes food and energy, is up 0.1% to 1.6% annually.
Both indicators have been in line with expectations, although investors anticipate that prices will go up in 2021, both due to higher economic growth and the base effect compared to 2020. In this sense, the Fed already indicated a few months ago that will temporarily allow inflation above 2% to stimulate growth after the pandemic.
This Wednesday the Fed Beige Book has also been published. The agency has warned that the rebound in Covid-19 cases in the country has diluted the positive effect of vaccines.
"Although the outlook for Covid-19 vaccines has supported business optimism for growth in 2021, this has been tempered by concerns about the recent rally of the virus and its implications for short-term business conditions," it says the document prepared by the Fed.
At the business level, investors await the start of the fourth quarter earnings season in the US, with figures of JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo, to be published on Friday.
On the stock market strategy, Credit Suisse sees the "exuberance" of stocks "likely" to continue in 2021. The Swiss firm continues to overweight equities, as it gives MSCI World a potential upside of 12.3%, and anticipates that the S&P 500 will end the year installed at 4,300 points (It trades at 3,800 points).
"Bullish sentiment is high, but at these levels markets will continue to rise"argue its experts.
Although not all experts are equally optimistic. Goldman Sachs predicts a short-term correction after the new highs recorded at the end of last week. The US Stock and Bond Markets they could "take more than one breath" in the short term, after reaching record highs last week, the expert Jan Hatzius has warned.
In other markets, the West Texas oil rose 0.4% to $ 53.41, while the euro it depreciates 0.2% and changes to $ 1.2176. In addition, the profitability of the 10-year American bond eases to 1.12%, after the great rebound in recent days.
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